First Full Week of 2018

1/7/18

Overall Market-

Markets trade higher during Fridays session, with all three benchmarks reaching or nearing record highs for a third straight day. Gains were led by tech and retail stocks, as Wall Street shrugged off an underwhelming labor market report and unexpected drop in an index measuring the largest sector of the US economy.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 146,000 in December, less than estimates for 185,000, according to labor department data. November's figure was revised up to 239,000 from 221,000, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% last month and December's average hourly earnings rose an as-expected 0.3%.

Once again the market continues to ignore most news. Fed saying high chance of multiple interest rate hikes. Bank stocks are now seeing heavy rotation on this thesis.

My personal outlook on the market remains bullish. Momentum is with the bulls for now. No tangible reason for this train to slow down.

E-mini futures have a major gap up at time of writing.

VIX (Volitility) VIX nearly all time lows! unbelievable complacency in the markets. When we get our next volitlity squeeze it is going to be incredibly profitable. For now this indicator is showing continued grind in the markets. Swing traders and long term investors should continue to see grinding higher.

NVDA (Nvidia corp)  Lesson to be learned here, no matter weakness or techincal indicators... Big money will move price where they want it. Market moving higher. Not a buyer here at these levels, missed my chance to add on weakness. No reason to chase. all time high here $218.67 watch for a breakout with strength over those price levels. alternatively this could be a double top however. No position will continue to watch.

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) Price action testing and closing above 200dEMA this is a strong signal for strength. Will watch for price to enter trade channel between $12 and $13.25, this is a previous level we have traded from. Market is just too strong to discount any strong runs for the bulls.

SOXX (Semicondector ETF long) Holding 50EMA on this sector, approaching november highs here, i am cautious with all semiconductors. I truly feel all bitcoin related plays including most of this sector is grossly over extended however, Technical are showing room for a move higher.

 

FCX (Freeport) (update 1/3/18 - price action continues to show incredible strength, congratulation to all longs.) Very strong trade from trade idea posted entry $13.83. Price action now showing some over extension and trend exhaustion. Some consolidation is needed at these levels. I will be watching for a pull back to test previous support (this may never happen or take several months to develop)

CHK  (Chesapeake) This would be an easy short if the market was not showing so much strength in the first days of 2018. I was willing to enter long last week but price action did not act well over $4.00 level. I may look to enter short for a trend continuation play. This would be to preempt a flush under the 50dEMA which would open this up to a host of trend followers. Swing subscribers be on watch for short alert here.

XLE (SPDR Sector energy) Strength in this sector continues, major media outlets now saying "this lagging sector has room to catch up"... it does not take a rocket scientist to call this type of thing nearly two months after the rotation started. We may have 4-8 more weeks of some soild gains across energy before it becomes grindy and overcrowded.

MRO (Marathon Oil) closed my personal position on MRO looking to rebuy $16.50 level.

SLB (Schlumberger LTD) I am long on this name with a target on the weekly chart 200 period EMA $76.53

Natural Gas (JAN 18 contract): NG bounced at $2.75 pivot support, gapping up at futures open. Closed all positions NG related on Thursdays inventory report. There is such a glut of NG in this country that it is hard to be bullish but I remain bullish, mostly due to extreme cold weather. Use caution with any bull theory on NG

SNAP (snapchat) Alerted a short on SNAP during Fridays session. Stop is a bit tight on this one. Looking to test lows in the long term, $13.00 in the near term.

Trend Watch

  • $IMGN (Update 1/7/18 - 3 red candles on the daily, tomorrow will be critical day for price action. Need a reversal bar or doji for strength.)(Update 1/3/18 - After nearly a month in this position we are finally seeing price action with great strength again, I believe in a target of $8.50 here)(Update 12/21/17 Swing working well, trimmed size on 10% gain. stop adjusted to break even.) (Update 12/13/17 alerted swing to subscribers 12/12/17 at $6.00, stop $5.70, techincals have room to run here, volume and potential squeeze on deck.)(update 12/10/17 most indicators here are bullish, RSI cross mid line, MACD strong, patterns confirming. Be on watch for swing alert on this name.)Looking to add above $6.00 for next leg.
  • QBAK Holding 200 shares at $7.40 here, trend continues. Risk is $1.00 +-.
  • $ONCS (update 1/7/18 indicators heating up here, breakout potential on this name.) (update 1/3/18 - On watch for a continuation play, I unfortunately did not get in on this trade, congratulations to anyone who grabbed this great set up.) consolidation continues, watching for double bottom. Techincals are finally cooled off and are ready for another chance to rally.
  • JP - (update 1/7/18 Price testing critical FIB level 38.2% $20.73, this could be the end of the bounce here, watch close for a breakdown or breakout from here.) (update 1/3/18 - breakout on volume and a strong bullish daily candle, on watch for continuation. Strong base formed at this level a rally to highs is possible.) watching $18.20 for support to hold. Liking the technical and possibility for a rally.
  • VRX - (update 1/7/18 price up nearly 6 points from first mention on blog, strength remains, trend is beginning to show signs of exhaustion, price action my get choppy from here.)(update 1/3/18 - held 13dEMA perfectly, incredible strength in the current trend. I may not get my pull back on this one. Will watch for a set up to new highs.) No position here, will look to buy on support around $18 level.

Robinhood Challenge: (Update 1/7/18 - gap up after and pre market, unfortunately being under 1k and not having (Update 1/3/18 - If I am being honest I feel as though I may be miss managing this position. I have no reason to take this trade off the table as there is not enough profit or stop loss to justify, however the nature of this challenge is putting pressure on me to complete quickly. I am feeling a high opportunity cost on this trade. I rarely place myself under a time restriction for a trade, that is part of the reason for my success. I need to implement a system here to justify always taking profits perhaps I will look into always locking a 10% gain, I will update everyone with my thoughts as I develop.) $RCON 275 shares @ $1.21, higher risk swing trade.

 

Low float watchlist plays

  • TNDM (update 1/3/18 - A great recovery here, I was fully expecting to be stopped out for a loss here, price action continues to show sign of a run over $3.00, will let price action play out.)Still holding 6k shares here, may get stopped out for loss in the next coming days, will let trade continue to play out.
  • EKSO (update 1/7/18 - price holding at key level, potential consolidation and new base here. No position, ,only watching.) (update 1/3/18 - pin bar formed on daily, potential for reversal, volume was higher and selling pressure consumed by buyers.) price riding the 13dEMA here, techincals are showing short signals. Last level for entry on this is $1.89. watching for potential to retrace previous move.
  • SALT - (Update 1/7/18 - first profit target hit here, holding 2/3 position. stop at break even, congratulations to swing subscribers.) (Update 1/3/18 - price action showing some curl action on the daily, with volume this one squeezes, potential for a move to $9 based on geometry but we will need a very strong move for that to take place.) Swing remains in play here, stop $7.15 target $8.00

 

BITCOIN/CRYPTO

(no change here)

Same old song and dance here, pick a ticker and hope for the best? Only kidding. With all seriousness, the below names have lost a lot of their initial traction in the retail space. They are becoming choppy.

However, do not discount anything related to blockchain, retail is still infatuated with bitcoin mania. Just remember this space is a bit played out. I prefer fresh tickers and new catalysts to really drive sustained momentum. 

  • GROW: 
  • TEUM:
  • SRAX:
  • RIOT:
  • MARA:
  • DPW:
  • XNET:

Fire watchlist for market day 1/7/18

  • FH
  • CYTX
  • KTOV
  • SALT
  • RCON

Low Float/Small Cap momentum-

HOT HOT HOT! be on watch for solid momentum on strong daily setups. We are seeing muti 100% movers again. Keep all crypto names and china names on watch. China names were providing great opportunity last week, that may continue this week.

Do you best to let your winners RUN, enter for breakouts and set stops far enough away to keep out of noise. This will require smaller size to control risk.


Momentum disclaimer:
Use caution when trading these low float names, they can crash even faster then they rise. Lock profits and do not look back, never play the "what if" game on these names. You can be up or down several hundred or THOUSANDS of dollars in minutes and in the case of a T12 material halt, you could be in for massive pain or worse be trapped in a position for days or weeks until material evidence is sufficient to remove halt.
 

Closing Notes:

2018 is starting strong for many in our community. Please respect your gains and learn from any losses you may have.

Remember just because you made money on a trade does not make it a good trade. Also, if you lost money on a trade does not make it a bad trade. Go back and review you trades. Often times a great trade can yield a loss and that is OK, so long as you follow your trade plan and accept losses properly.

A string of winners will not make you a good trader and a string of losers will not make you a bad trader. Keep all this in mind as we start the first full trading week of 2018.

Strive to record all of your trades and stick to your trade plan. This is the only way to make the detect and correct the small issues that seperate conisistent winners from consistent losers.

Disclaimer: We are not responsible for losses for any reason. We are just an investing club here, seek financial advise from a professional before acting on any of this information. This information is strictly my opinion and what i am seeing in the market. The information above is not a trade recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a licensed broker, dealer or finical adviser. Trading comes with considerable risk and my not be for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Never trade with money you can not lose and paper trade to prove profitability before using real money.