Choppy Action

1/25/18

Overall Market-

Trading for the session was choppy during open hours yesterday. Comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross lead to increased tensions over the possibility of a trade war with China.

This topic has come to the front of traders attention as President Trump approved the tariff on imported washing machines and solar cells. 

The question here is, at what point do we cross a line that we can not undo? Continued action like this is sure to bring some geopolitical turmoil to the markets. Bad news for investors, GREAT news for traders.

Welcome back volatility, it has been long over due. How long it lasts? who knows, just know for now our steady march higher has slowed its relentless pace... for now. 

 

VIX (Volatility) healthy spike in the chart, now holding above 200period. We are still low in terms of historical price data. 

NVDA (Nvidia corp) Small pull back, need to see a move to the 9 or 13 day emas to consider entry. 

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) Very similar to NVDA trading, no fundamental change. 

SOXX (Semiconductor ETF long) entire sector pulling back, given its recent run, this will pull back with the market should broad selling continue.

 

XLE (SPDR Sector energy)Holding up well, even as other sectors show larger weakness, this is due in part to its lagging nature in recent gains. Remain bullish on energy.

FCX (Freeport) Earnings look to be a beat here based on data just being released. This may be the news needed to start trading above $20

CHK  (Chesapeake) Opportunity to follow sector on this ticker, price holds well above $4.00, swing alerted here for a long. 

MRO (Marathon Oil) Price upgrade from Morgan Stanley of $25, this should help propel price above current channel resistance. 

SLB (Schlumberger LTD) Trailing stop in place here, let this continue to work. Price action stalling at $80. Potential pull back and opportunity to add coming.

Natural Gas (FEB 18 contract): No position into inventory report this week. Price action has been strong in both directions in the last two trading sessions. On watch for potential trend reversal should report show bearish. 

 

SNAP (snapchat) (Update, twitter announces "storys" as well, see if this moves price.) Short position on this name remains active on final 1/3 position. I remain bearish on this name in the long term. Should price action close or gain strength above $14.50 bulls will have control again. Stop is in place on final shares at $14.80

 

Swing Positions (Details are intentionally vague, in respect of paying swing subscribers)

  • $IMGN final shares running, great entry from $6.00 price
  • $SNAP Short (in profit, final shares stop is just above break even.)
  • $DSW Long (breakout setup over current levels)
  • $MBOT Long (speculative play, strong entry and managed risk, let it trade)
  • $CYCC Long (speculative play, good volume) 
  • CHK long (sector and dividend)

Robinhood Challenge: Positions on CYCC  & MBOT

 

Low float watchlist plays

  • TNDM (Update 1/10/18 - sold 1/2 position $3.15, stop break-even on remaining shares. great trade here, now holding 3k shares.)
  • PIXY (update, pulling back to 50dema, on watch) this ticker was alerted on the swing service last week for an entry at $3.30, order was not filled. Price is now trading and grinding well. Keep on watch for a squeeze. Pull back opportunity on yesterdays price action.
  • VTGN (update, beautiful call here, great move, watch for continuation) on watch for a potential squeeze as we curl up to test 200dEMA.
  • GALT (update, patent news this morning, on watch) forming a flag on daily in this consolidation, on watch for breakout.
  • DRNA breaking out, long term bullish trend, on watch for entry.
  • REXX potential bottom, on watch for trend reversal.

 

BITCOIN/CRYPTO

Blockchain frenzy has died down in the past week or so. Former names can not be traded with more traditional indicatiors as irrational buying cools off, names to keep on long term watch $GROW, $TEUM, $SRAX, $RIOT, $MARA, $DPW, $XNET

 

Fire watchlist for market day 1/25/18

  • VTGN (continuation)
  • IPWR (continuation)
  • RMGN (news)
  • TWTR (news)
  • LTBR (continuation)

Low Float/Small Cap momentum-

There were some incredible mid day movers yesterday with impressive gains. We may enter a period of grinding all day moves. It seems the frenzy around blockchain names is tempered. Small cap bio stocks seem to be showing signs of momentum once again.


Momentum disclaimer:
Use caution when trading these low float names, they can crash even faster then they rise. Lock profits and do not look back, never play the "what if" game on these names. You can be up or down several hundred or THOUSANDS of dollars in minutes and in the case of a T12 material halt, you could be in for massive pain or worse be trapped in a position for days or weeks until material evidence is sufficient to remove halt.
 

Closing Notes:

The final days of January are here, make sure to take advantage of this momentum and lock in gains as the market makes them available. 

Be sure to protect your profits and most importantly manage risk.

Keep an eye on the overall market as things are starting to once again see choppy action in price. Do no panic should things turn, just remember to keep your losses small. Live to trade another day!

Thank you again, lets go team! 

 

Disclaimer: We are not responsible for losses for any reason. We are just an investing club here, seek financial advise from a professional before acting on any of this information. This information is strictly my opinion and what I am seeing in the market. The information above is not a trade recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a licensed broker, dealer or finical adviser. Trading comes with considerable risk and may not be for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Never trade with money you can not lose and paper trade to prove profitability before using real money.