Shutdown Averted 

1-23-18

Overall Market-

Less than 1 full trading session and plans have been put in place to avert a shutdown for at least three weeks. 

After this news was released markets roared to new all time highs.. AGAIN.

With earnings season here and some great reports, of note Netflix after hours yesterday, the market appears ready to continue.

Remain cautious on a pull back, we are still over extended but with a drop in volatility price action continues to show bullish action.

 

 

VIX (Volatility) volatility at an acceptable level for trading. Continue to keep this on watch. 

NVDA (Nvidia corp) when you're wrong, you're wrong and I was WRONG. both NVDA and AMD provided great pull back buying opportunity in hindsight. I did not take advantage of either and will be sitting this move out for now. It would be even more foolish of me to chase and buy this all time high out of frustration.

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) Similar to NVDA above. It is hard for me to stay bullish on something that has had such an incredible run in the last 18 months but who am I to tell the market it is wrong. congratulations to any longs on these names.

SOXX (Semiconductor ETF long) sector new highs and strength to continue this move. Space is still very hot. I would imagine should the market continue to rally this will easily follow in toe. Personally for me there is better value to be had in other sectors where price has not pushed to these extreme levels. That is just me, there is without doubt still value and room to run as an investor but as a trader opportunity is else were in my opinion.

 

FCX (Freeport) (no change - $20 is developing some very strong resistance in the short term. price action tightening, breakout or pull back in the cards) Price stalling at $20 level here, a bearish cross on MACD, RSI crossover at overbought levels. Based on current ATR levels a pullback to the $20dEMA $18.58, may well be in the cards. Conversely should price break over the $20 level with strong momentum we may be looking at one final leg of this incredible move. Overall price action here is well overextended at the least we desperately need some consolidation to build a new base.

CHK  (Chesapeake) (Update 1/23/18 - given price history I feel compelled to short this name, but I will not go against current momentum in this sector. Price sitting at key level, doji formed on daily chart. keep on watch for a bounce over $4.00 to scalp)(Update 1/17/18 - looking to short on this weakness, price structure showing potential short targets $3.81-$3.41, will be watching tomorrows price action for entry) (update 1/15/18 - while I remain bearish on this name, conditions in the sector are too strong to short. Technicals have a potential for a strong bounce, the weekly chart shows at the very least some consolidation after a long downtrend. The 50 period EMA on the weekly chart will be a clue as to long-term price action) I am bearish on this name from a fundamental long-term outlook. Energy space is just too strong to short. No signals have been generated to short this. However, there is a potential for a breakout of the current down channel we are trading in above price $4.17 with volume could be a signal for a technical squeeze to the 200dEMA which currently sits at $4.47. Follow volume and price action on this one, no safe way to predict price action at current levels.

XLE (SPDR Sector energy) and we are off to the races! The downtrend was broken with conviction, price well over $75 spot now. Expect this sector to continue with oil, copper, gold, silver and the overall market. Tailwind is in this sector. Remember to let your winners run!

MRO (Marathon Oil) (No change price action remains bullish)(Update 1/17/18 bulls in full control, congratulations to any longs here.) weekly 200 period EMA $18.98 nearly tested! Weekly chart threatening to break out above the current channel. Squeeze may be on the table here. Watch for volume and price action over $19.00 for hints to next move.

SLB (Schlumberger LTD) (No change momentum showing great strength, may pull back a bit after yesterdays incredible move) (Update 1/15/18 ALL TARGETS REACHED! "trim and trail here" meaning trim position and trailing stop remaining shares. Set and forget this one. let it run.) (update 1/10/18 - continued strength, no reason to exit, the target remains intact.) I am long on this name with a target on the weekly chart 200 period EMA $76.53

Natural Gas (FEB 18 contract): After last weeks report and pull back, price seems to now have gained a higher base, pushing through to a new near term high. I still feel price here needs to re test $3.00 spot but that may not happen given current run on energy. I will look to re-enter short as this moves higher.

SNAP (snapchat) (Update 1/23/18 some support showing up at $13.50 on price action. Price now above $14. This trade may be over for now. - (Update 1/10/18 - need $14 level to become resistance for a move lower, short is still active here.) Alerted a short on SNAP during Friday's session. Stop is a bit tight on this one. Looking to test lows in the long term, $13.00 in the near term.

Trend Watch

  • $IMGN NO CHANGE, let it run on final shares. (update 1/10/18 - major winner here, weekly now sitting at 200EMA, a potential for breakout. swing for subscribers still intact.)(Update 1/7/18 - 3 red candles on the daily, tomorrow will be a critical day for price action. Need a reversal bar or doji for strength.)(Update 1/3/18 - After nearly a month in this position we are finally seeing price action with great strength again, I believe in a target of $8.50 here)(Update 12/21/17 Swing working well, trimmed size on 10% gain. stop adjusted to break even.) (Update 12/13/17 alerted swing to subscribers 12/12/17 at $6.00, stop $5.70, technicals have room to run here, volume and potential squeeze on deck.)(update 12/10/17 most indicators here are bullish, RSI cross midline, MACD strong, patterns confirming. Be on watch for swing alert on this name.)Looking to add above $6.00 for next leg.
  • QBAK (update 1/17/18 - price testing 50dEMA, will sell if closes under this moving average.) Holding 200 shares at $7.40 here, trend continues. Risk is $1.00 +-.
  • $ONCS (Update 1/17/18 - price continues to consolidate above to 50dEMA, like the potential here, on close watch) price consolidating above the 13dEMA, breakout potential remains!

Robinhood Challenge: Positions on CYCC & MBOT

 

Low float watchlist plays

  • TNDM (Update 1/10/18 - sold 1/2 position $3.15, stop breakeven on remaing shares. great trade here, now holding 3k shares.)(update 1/3/18 - A great recovery here, I was fully expecting to be stopped out for a loss here, price action continues to show sign of a run over $3.00, will let price action play out.)Still holding 6k shares here, may get stopped out for loss in the next coming days, will let trade continue to play out.

 

BITCOIN/CRYPTO

"fortunes" are being destroyed as fast as they were created here. use caution with anything bitcoin right now. Price action is bearish in recent trading. Yes, this could aggressively recover but everyone here his discounting its meteoric rise. Price correction on this can still go well under 10k.

 

  • GROW: 
  • TEUM:
  • SRAX:
  • RIOT:
  • MARA:
  • DPW:
  • XNET:

 

Fire watchlist for market day 1/23/18

  • RGSE
  • MNGA
  • CYCC
  • ROKU

Low Float/Small Cap momentum-

Momentum continues to be strong out of the open for opening range breakouts. 

Keep a close eye on solar related plays today. News released yesterday on a tariff on imported solar cells. This will help the cause on many names in this sector. May provide some great price action trades. 


Momentum disclaimer:
Use caution when trading these low float names, they can crash even faster then they rise. Lock profits and do not look back, never play the "what if" game on these names. You can be up or down several hundred or THOUSANDS of dollars in minutes and in the case of a T12 material halt, you could be in for massive pain or worse be trapped in a position for days or weeks until material evidence is sufficient to remove halt.
 

Closing Notes:

I will be reworking the blog to include some new trend watch names and reflect some of our swing trade positions in the alert service.

Make sure to protect any recent gains you may have from the market. January is almost to a close. Lets finish strong! 

Stay hungry and humble team, let's go!

Disclaimer: We are not responsible for losses for any reason. We are just an investing club here, seek financial advise from a professional before acting on any of this information. This information is strictly my opinion and what I am seeing in the market. The information above is not a trade recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a licensed broker, dealer or finical adviser. Trading comes with considerable risk and may not be for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Never trade with money you can not lose and paper trade to prove profitability before using real money.