Shaky Legs

12/4/17

 

Overall Market-

Who smashed the panic glass today? SPY opening above weekly chart trade channel. Very strong gap up on the back of Tax Reform passing this year with high potential. When suddenly... a wild bear flag appears...

Resistance along the upper line of the trade channel was strong and refused to give way. As so the bears are now in control of price action... for now.

Not calling a top here but if there was ever a place for a techincal pull back, this is the moment. I do not care what the top analysis are saying, I do not care what TV personalities are saying. The fact is for smart money, this is the time to sell before the news of Tax Reform, before seasonal tail wind comes to an end and before the new year (tax reasons).

So the question is now is it time to hedge or close positions? I will continue to hold all long term positions I own. Most large cap swing trading positions will likely breakdown if the market also breaks down. So this brings me to my favorite time in trading. VOLATILITY!

I could be wrong and have egg on my face in the morning or next week but such is the nature of expressing your opinion openly for a community to see.

 

VIX (Volitility) Should the current price action prevail and this wipsaw continue, I will switch to trading VIX related instruments. These are typically leveraged and can provide exceptional gains, just be mindful of risk with these. No VIX related instrument is intended to be a buy and hold, most are leveraged and include re-balancing (an awkward form of time decay unique to levered ETF's).

NVDA TIMBER... 20dEMA tested, on deck $151.96 (50dEMA), potential pivot support $169.29. Please keep in mind that no amount of techincals will save this name if smart money is done with this sector as seems to be the case. This may seem crazy but I can see a resting price here around $120, at which point. I would load the boat and come back in 5 years. (all extremism aside, keep on watch for bounce potential)

FCX (Freeport) (update) 12/4/17 stop now at breakeven, not giving much room with market roll over.  Still holding entry $13.84, this is $0.20 higher than my ideal entry. Only 1k size on this position. Chart still showing price targets between $15.25-$15.75, sector rotation into energy should help this trade. Friday saw big money buying energy.

CHK  (Chesapeake) Update: that one ended fast for me. overall market stopping this before it could really gain wings. Will watch for another entry.

XLE (SPDR Sector energy) OPEC!!!, sector on fire now. Market and OPEC news driving this sector.

MRO (Marathon Oil) keep on watch until market picks a direction.


AMD  (Advanced Micro Devices) FLUSH as expected here. now at pivot support, critical level here. sector is weak, major rotation.

SNAP (snapchat) (no change) Technicals here are showing move higher and potential breakout into gap zone. Any longs here have a strong position with defined risk. However,  I am far to bearish on this name to trade with a clear mind, I am sure I am would not be accurately perceiving market information on this and will avoid going long here. I will be looking to short at key fib levels.

Trend Watch

  • $IMGN Looking to add above $6.00 for next leg.
  • QBAK buyer here at $6.50, may never get the chance but looking at long term support to buy.
  • $HMNY - watching for an entry signal, eyeing entry $11.50 level may enter above $12 if price action shows strength. update 12/4/17 (really liking this consolidation. may enter soon)
  • $ONCS Consolidation here continues, $2.00 confirming support. Long entry from here, will watch for signal, stop $1.81 update 12/4/17 (potentially missed entry signal just before close today. No position, sill on watch)

Robinhood Challenge: DFFN still holding. Strong pop today on volume, daily chart heating up. As stated this is higher risk, could quickly breakdown to all time lows. Account value $285 at time of writing.

 

Low float watchlist plays

  • LBIX Update: (1,000 shares long $1.71) 3 red candles and a Doji here, I will enter tomorrow. I like this candle stick pattern. Provides a good defined risk. Stop $1.60. Update 12/4/17 (making a bad habit of almost getting stopped out on multiple set ups now. expecting to get stopped here tomorrow. assuming the loss is in on this one -$90)
  • TNDM  Update: Long signal here, be on watch for swing alert here. Ascending wedge. breaking 20dEMA with volume will be key for entry here. Eyeing $2.50 for swing entry.
  • EKSO back in the spotlight here, techincals nearly ready for a strong re-run.
  • EGLT update 12/4/17 ($1.31 level showing to be a real challenge here, will continue to watch) great price action here, looking for a long over $1.31 for a breakout here. update 11/27/17 price action holding well. high alert for breakout.
  • CLSN Update 12/4/17 (last chance at $2.50, flush possible here) Looking for entry on this name. (correction 50dEMA!)200dEMA $2.65, will use this level for entry. now looking for entry

 

BITCOIN/CRYPTO

Major chop in price action on both bitcoin and the below names. Of note below for todays price action DPW (unfortunaly afterhours today may have killed a continued move. close watch)

  • GROW:
  • TEUM:
  • SRAX:
  • RIOT:
  • MARA:
  • DPW: (keep on close watch tomorrow)
  • XNET:

Hot watch list 12/5/17

  • CYCC (great call on this for Mondays session, high alert here, room to 200dEMA $2.90)
  • EYEG (volume, breakout alert)(may have one day left in this run, scalp potential)
  • CANN (another solid call for Monday, keep on watch for continuation, volume still high)
  • MRDN (volume alert, no news)
  • DFFN (Former runner, disclosure I am long as of 11/29 on this name. volume alert)
  • AKER (high risk penny, volume alert)

 

Low Float/Small Cap momentum-

DPW was a great grinder today, PXS takes the cake today for explosive action. These two moves should keep momentum going for a few days.

Shippers may have a shot tomorrow as GLBS is showing major strength today during price action and after hours.

 


Momentum disclaimer:
Use caution when trading these low float names, they can crash even faster then they rise. Lock profits and do not look back, never play the "what if" game on these names. You can be up or down several hundred or THOUSANDS of dollars in minutes and in the case of a T12 material halt, you could be in for massive pain or worse be trapped in a position for days or weeks until material evidence is sufficient to remove halt.
 

Closing Notes:

Only one strong trade for me today. Cushion established. Will not look to build on that. My focus will be on the hot watch list and volatility.

Swing trades will quickly breakdown if the market continues to slide. Use this as a signal to protect any profits you may have. Re-entry is always possible. No reason to fight the current of the river here.

Keep a close eye on the SPY for early indication of market direction and sentiment. Additionally news and pressure from North Korea could be cause for additional weakness.

Good luck team, Remain humble and hungry!

Disclaimer: We are not responsible for losses for any reason. We are just an investing club here, seek financial advise from a professional before acting on any of this information. This information is strictly my opinion and what i am seeing in the market. The information above is not a trade recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a licensed broker, dealer or finical adviser. Trading comes with considerable risk and my not be for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Never trade with money you can not lose and paper trade to prove profitability before using real money.