Friday before Christmas

12/21/17

Overall Market-

US stocks turned positive at session's half, as continued economic expansion and the potential impact new tax laws will have on US corporations helped brighten market sentiment.

Following approval of the new tax bill by Congress, investors were evaluating how new tax legislation will not only impact corporate tax rates, but how US corporations will use those savings to expand shareholder value, employee wages and, ultimately, economic growth. Additionally, latest data indicated that the economy grew by a healthy 3.2% in the third quarter, the fastest rate of growth since Q1 2015.

Expect volumes to be low. Friday before a holiday is often slow for large and mid cap trading. However, as has been the case, bitcoin retail mania will continue.

VIX (Volitility) VIX historical low range after Tax Bill news. Continued complacency in the market as a whole.

NVDA  Closing above 20 & 50 day EMAs. choppy price action in these levels. If we lose support at this level shorts will be in full control.

FCX (Freeport) (Update 12/21/17 one incredible trade and call shaping up here. Bulls in full control. Are we going to test 23.93 on this move? Time will tell, I would not be surprised to see a pull back to channel support at $16 level. For now ride the wave on this one!) (Updated 12/19/17 bulls remain in full control. Weekly 200 period is now on deck to be tested.) This breakout is showing incredible strength, 200 period EMA on the weekly chart is sitting at $17.69. We are flirting with a new 52 week high at current levels. we are confirming a full on bull chart since lows in 2016. I have been bullish on FCX for the last 18 months and see no reason for things to change. Disclosure: I own FCX in my IRA average cost of $9.44 with no intention of selling.

CHK  (Chesapeake) (Update 12/19/17 - Price bouncing at key level $3.50, Natural gas is experiencing a small bounce helping price here, additionally there is some seasonal energy rotation happening. I will be watching $3.85 level for resistance on this move) Critical price level here. Without the aid of some positive news this looks as thought the sell off will continue. There is no reason based on techincals for this to maintain current price levels. I truly believe the $3 spot is on deck for this ticker.

XLE (SPDR Sector energy) Breakout and rotation into this sector is in full swing. follow the volume and seasonal rotation here.

MRO (Marathon Oil) (update 12/21/17 incredible breakout here as well, closing above major resistance/pivots. $18 spot on deck.) No chance still long - (Update 12/11/17 - weak candle, still long) Long signal, target to test $15.75-$16.00 level.


AMD  (Advanced Micro Devices) (update 12/21/17 trimmed size here at $11, stop moved to breakeven on remain shares.) (update 12/19/17 This set up is working great, incredible volume at open, filled higher than i would like, $10.69 holding 2k size on this position, volume on our daily chart was strong, potential for a move higher price targets $11.24-$12.55) TRADE IDEA Chart is finally showing an opportunity to move higher off this base. Swing trade potential. We have $1.50 to 200dEMA. RSI confirming divergence, MACD crossing with volume during fridays session. Risk price level $9.74 (2:1 risk reward)

SNAP (snapchat) (Update 12/19/17 Looking for the blow off day at the top of this move for a short signal, would love for a pin bar or djoi to form and allow shorts to move in. no position currently) Technicals are aproaching overbought levels. Trend is not yet exhausted. We could see a test of the 200dEMA $16.81. I will continue to look for weakness to short on. Congratulations to all longs, just be sure to not overstay your welcome. Chart is showing signs of profit taking in current supply levels.

Natural Gas (JAN 18 contract): (update 12/19/17 small bounce off lows here, overhead resistance still looks to be strong. Inventory report will be needed for a full on reversal of trend at these levels.) I remain counter trend in my sentiment here. Rarely do I attempt to catch a bottom however price level here is to attractive for me to ignore. 52 week low is $2.522. Price action during Fridays session nearly tested those levels. at time of writing futures price $2.648. Will watch for a new long.

Trend Watch

  • $IMGN (Update 12/21/17 Swing working well, trimmed size on 10% gain. stop adjusted to break even.) (Update 12/13/17 alerted swing to subscribers 12/12/17 at $6.00, stop $5.70, techincals have room to run here, volume and potential squeeze on deck.)(update 12/10/17 most indicators here are bullish, RSI cross mid line, MACD strong, patterns confirming. Be on watch for swing alert on this name.)Looking to add above $6.00 for next leg.
  • QBAK (update 12/21/17 breakout as expected here. great move congratulations longs.)(update 12/19/17 MACD cross daily, will buy a pull back on small size, keep in mind this name has low volume, large spreads and trades choppy intra day. swing potential only. )Technicals here showing ready to breakout. With news this one explodes, do not give up on this one just yet.
  • $ONCS (update 12/19/17 continued consolidation in this range, healthy support and base building above $1.53, will look for a swing entry as technicals start to cool) watching key price level $1.53. That is our last fib level for a healthy bounce here.
  • JP - (Update 12/21/17 Volume and breakout today, on watch for continuation!) techincals on the daily chart are showing potential. on watch for a swing position. Volume lower the last few sessions. Will watch in coming week for price action.
  • VRX - (12/21/17 potential for a next leg of breakout here, flagging on daily chart)(update 12/19/17 I will be using $19.75 as key price level in this expansion zone we are trading in. Would like to see some consolidation or a pull back before entering, trend is nearly exausted.) djoi on daily, lower volume. Not sure if selling is finished off this recent breakout.

Robinhood Challenge: $RCON 275 shares @ $1.21, higher risk swing trade.

 

Low float watchlist plays

  • TNDM (updated 12/19/17 added to this position on 12/18/17 3k size at $2.55 now holding 6k shares here, price target $2.90-$3.25, time line 3 weeks)(update 12/11/17 Alerted swing here $2.40 entry, stop $2.18, 3k size, target $3.00) Will enter long tomorrow, defined risk. Long term swing. Set and forget. Risk here is $0.26 share+-
  • EKSO (update 12/19/17 doji on daily, watch for a bounce or return to long trend at this level) back at critical price $2.25 (200dEMA) level, watch for direction.
  • SALT - (update 12/21/17 may use this opportunity to add at this lower level.)(update 12/19/17 alerted a swing entry $7.53, stop $7.15, targets $8.29-$9.20, entry is higher than I would like here only have 1k size.) (update 12/13/17 - potential pull back here, will look to enter on signal.) some nice geometry showing potential to move into $8.50 level.

 

BITCOIN/CRYPTO

FRENZY!!!! buy everything or anything that has the letters B, I, T, C, O, I, or N... (Could not resist an off color joke here.) In all honesty bitcoin frenzy is so high right now that anything even rumored to be associated with any kind of block chain technology is going bonkers. 

Long Island WHAT?! are you f'in kidding me? Add blockchain to company name and share price jumps %500?! we are truly at a point of complete lunacy with this bitcoin. $LTEA was out of control today. I am leaving the below statement in the blog to remind people what kind of monster we are dealing with.

I am saying this to all of us, myself included. There will most likely never be another bitcoin type scenario in our trading lifetimes. If you are a crypto trader and have made thousands or millions, please understand this is a gift and needs to be treated with respect that such gains demand or you will quickly lose everything you have been given. 

Do not expect this kind of environment to continue for much longer, something has to give, we can not continue to have hundreds of percent movers back to back before some kind of government regulation will step in. At this point there is BILLIONS of dollars in taxes unpaid on crpyto currency, you better believe someone in governments all over the world is looking at a chance for "capital gains tax". For those of you that do not understand what is happening with taxes and crypto, technically (i use this term loosely as there is a serious grey area involving capital gains and crypto) since bitcoin is not an recognized currency, you can keep your gains free of tax... UNTIL converted to USD, at which point you owe the government a load of cash. In my uneducated opinion, this will be the pin to burst the bubble, as people panic when bitcoin starts to lose value and then realize they owe potentially hundreds of thousands in tax. 

  • GROW: 
  • TEUM:
  • SRAX:
  • RIOT:
  • MARA:
  • DPW:
  • XNET:

Breakout potential list 12/19/17

  • EYES interested for breakout over $2.00 with volume.
  • ROKA CRUSHED! removing from list, price to low for me.
  • PYDS (choppy price) former runner, volume alert.

Fire watchlist for market day 12/21/17

  • SAEX
  • TOPS
  • SINO
  • DCIX
  • RSYS
  • FH
  • XGTI

 

Low Float/Small Cap momentum-

Shippers on WATCH! keep a close eye on Bitcoin related and all bulk shippers. Do not ruin your long weekend with poor risk management. Fast entry's and exits on momentum.


Momentum disclaimer:
Use caution when trading these low float names, they can crash even faster then they rise. Lock profits and do not look back, never play the "what if" game on these names. You can be up or down several hundred or THOUSANDS of dollars in minutes and in the case of a T12 material halt, you could be in for massive pain or worse be trapped in a position for days or weeks until material evidence is sufficient to remove halt.
 

Closing Notes:

Tomorrow may well be the last trading day of 2017 for me. I have taken off the week of Christmas and New year for the last 3 years. It is a good time for me to refresh, take a break and really apprentice what all of this hard work and discipline buys.

Expect volumes in the next week to be low, price action to be bland and trends to just grind in the same direction.

Lets finish the year strong and start 2018 with some serious momentum. 

Good luck team, Remain humble and hungry!

Disclaimer: We are not responsible for losses for any reason. We are just an investing club here, seek financial advise from a professional before acting on any of this information. This information is strictly my opinion and what i am seeing in the market. The information above is not a trade recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a licensed broker, dealer or finical adviser. Trading comes with considerable risk and my not be for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Never trade with money you can not lose and paper trade to prove profitability before using real money.