Right now, the market is acting like tax reform is nearly a done deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 322.58 points, or 1.3%, to 24,651.74 last week, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 0.9%, to 2675.81. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.4%, to 6936.58. The only real hiccup came on Thursday, when Senator Marco Rubio said he'd oppose the tax bill if it didn't include a larger child tax credit -- news that caused the S&P 500 to drop. Rubio got what he wanted, and it was off to the races for stocks again on Friday, with all three major indexes closing the week at new all-time highs.
As investors gear up for the end-of-year Santa rally, political uncertainty lingers in the backdrop, threatening to dampen holiday spirit if politicians fail to reach a deal to avert a government shutdown. And even as pundits play down the possibility of government coming to a screeching halt, the threat may keep some jittery investors sidelined.
To counter act the above point; the bank's Bull & Bear indicator fell to 6.2, the lowest since February 2017, which according to Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, suggests that investors will likely buy into the market on any dips.
Expect to see some solid trading for the final week in 2018, volume should be higher as tax positions will be closed and the final property to offset gains with losses is near.
VIX (Volitility) VIX dumping hard on friday as market roared. Continue to look for spikes off lows for trading opportunity.
NVDA Some new geometry showing a potential bounce back to $210 area. We will need to contend with several key moving averages that are converging on the daily chart. Any close over $195 should signals bulls to jump back on board.
FCX (Freeport) This breakout is showing incredible strength, 200 period EMA on the weekly chart is sitting at $17.69. We are flirting with a new 52 week high at current levels. we are confirming a full on bull chart since lows in 2016. I have been bullish on FCX for the last 18 months and see no reason for things to change. Disclosure: I own FCX in my IRA average cost of $9.44 with no intention of selling.
CHK (Chesapeake) Critical price level here. Without the aid of some positive news this looks as thought the sell off will continue. There is no reason based on techincals for this to mantain current price levels. I truly belive the $3 spot is on deck for this ticker.
XLE (SPDR Sector energy) uptrend in this sector remains in tact. 200dEMA $67.71
MRO (Marathon Oil) No chance still long - (Update 12/11/17 - weak candle, still long) Long signal, target to test $15.75-$16.00 level.
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) TRADE IDEA Chart is finally showing an opportunity to move higher off this base. Swing trade potential. We have $1.50 to 200dEMA. RSI confirming divergence, MACD crossing with volume during fridays session. Risk price level $9.74 (2:1 risk reward)
SNAP (snapchat) Technicals are aproaching overbought levels. Trend is not yet exhausted. We could see a test of the 200dEMA $16.81. I will continue to look for weakness to short on. Congratulations to all longs, just be sure to not overstay your welcome. Chart is showing signs of profit taking in current supply levels.
Natural Gas (JAN 18 contract): I remain counter trend in my sentiment here. Rarely do I attempt to catch a bottom however price level here is to attractive for me to ignore. 52 week low is $2.522. Price action during Fridays session nearly tested those levels. at time of writing futures price $2.648. Will watch for a new long.
- $IMGN (Update 12/13/17 alerted swing to subscribers 12/12/17 at $6.00, stop $5.70, techincals have room to run here, volume and potential squeeze on deck.)(update 12/10/17 most indicators here are bullish, RSI cross mid line, MACD strong, patterns confirming. Be on watch for swing alert on this name.)Looking to add above $6.00 for next leg.
- QBAK Technicals here showing ready to breakout. With news this one explodes, do not give up on this one just yet.
- $HMNY - panic button smashed, what a flush, potential for a bounce.
- $ONCS watching key price level $1.53. That is our last fib level for a healthy bounce here.
- JP - techincals on the daily chart are showing potential. on watch for a swing position. Volume lower the last few sessions. Will watch in coming week for price action.
- VRX - djoi on daily, lower volume. Not sure if selling is finished off this recent breakout.
Robinhood Challenge: No open positions. Account $347 at time of writing.
Low float watchlist plays
- TNDM (update 12/11/17 Alerted swing here $2.40 entry, stop $2.18, 3k size, target $3.00) Will enter long tomorrow, defined risk. Long term swing. Set and forget. Risk here is $0.26 share+-
- EKSO back at critical price $2.25 (200dEMA) level, watch for direction.
- EGLT Strong move on news friday, need support $1
- SALT - (update 12/13/17 - potential pull back here, will look to enter on signal.) some nice geometry showing potential to move into $8.50 level.
Major chop in price action on both bitcoin and the below names. Keep this on watch as bitcoin continues to grow strength. Now that futures are available to trade, expect some more momentum in all crypto plays until the bubble bursts or people just get bored because gains slow.
Some strength showing friday in key names bold below. Continue to use caution in these names. Risk should always be placed before reward in all of these.
Hot watch list 12/17/17
- EYES interested for breakout over $2.00 with volume.
- ROKA believe in breakout here, like this $1 level holding.
- IMUC (penny, news release up over 100% after hours)
- PYDS former runner, volume alert.
- ITUS high alert, trend is long here. need volume.
- DCIX re-run potential over $5.50
- ICHR bouncing off 200dEMA with volume, technical ripe for a move higher.
- LFIN 300% move on friday. literally uncharted ticker only 3 days of price action. No clue where this one goes. Supply zone from Fridays trading lies between $15-$18 range. Potential for a upper supply zone $22-$24 dollar range.
Low Float/Small Cap momentum-
Gappers have been largely selling off after gapping up in the low float space. The big mover on Friday has to be LFIN, this ticker showed bullish price action without question. Assuming retail traders are looking to hit a home run in the last full trading week, I am expecting this week to provide some very strong moves off the back of this ticker.
Blockchain and shippers for momentum spotlight this week. Follow the volume, do not fight flow. Retail will likely pile in anything popping up on High of day scanners. Be sure to trade breakouts of key price levels.
Use caution when trading these low float names, they can crash even faster then they rise. Lock profits and do not look back, never play the "what if" game on these names. You can be up or down several hundred or THOUSANDS of dollars in minutes and in the case of a T12 material halt, you could be in for massive pain or worse be trapped in a position for days or weeks until material evidence is sufficient to remove halt.
This week will most likely be my final push for 2017. As the last full trading week of 2017 I will only be taking the best quality trades. This year as a whole has been on for the record books no only for me but for several of our students.
The final quarter of 2017 has been one of my longest and as would be expected profitable periods of trading. Momentum has been hot now for nearly 3 months and thanks to bitcoin frenzy looks to remain strong through years end.
Look to control your emotions and maintain proper levels of risk. Santa Rally should carry us to new all time highs this week.
For those of you sitting on long term positions in the red, it may be a good chance to lock in some losses for tax selling. For everyone else, look to buy weakness in sectors that are beat down. Tax selling sectors are a great time to buy on a discount for a longer term rotation stragety.
Good luck team, Remain humble and hungry!
Disclaimer: We are not responsible for losses for any reason. We are just an investing club here, seek financial advise from a professional before acting on any of this information. This information is strictly my opinion and what i am seeing in the market. The information above is not a trade recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a licensed broker, dealer or finical adviser. Trading comes with considerable risk and my not be for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Never trade with money you can not lose and paper trade to prove profitability before using real money.