Money Monday$$

12/11/17

Overall Market-

Market trade in positive territory after November's non-farm payroll report but with advances muted by a terrorist attack in New York City, and ahead of Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee. SPY with a strong short term trend and grinding higher.

In economic data news, the October Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) number showed job openings fell 181,000 to 5.996 million following the 87,000 gain to 6.177 million in September. The rate slipped to 3.9% versus unchanged at 4.0% previously.

Futures once again pointing to higher open. Bullish action to continue.

VIX (Volitility) VIX is primed and ready to go, all this needs is some even to spark a move. Look for leveraged instruments here or volatility futures to capture any spikes should negative market news creep into view.

NVDA Daily chart failing to break or even test critical moving averages to the upside. I am seeing this as a signal for continued weakness. On watch for a potential long if price action remains and holds $180 level.

FCX (Freeport) (Update 12/11/17 - price action showing some weakness, bulls remain in control at this level.) Bulls in control here, trade thesis working. I am not in this position and was stopped for breakeven. Great idea and technical, execution wrong for me. Hopefully someone has this for continued strength. Of note in his chart is the DOJI that formed in Fridays sessions. Sellers may jump in to test resolve of bulls tomorrow.

CHK  (Chesapeake) (Update 12/11/17 - price fails to close above 20dEMA, interested to see if $3.95 becomes resistance level.)  Bearish channel formed and showing to be true here. No position. Techincals showing potential to test $3.00 in coming weeks. Only caveat to that is Natural Gas, if bullish action on NG pushing price, there may be come sympathy in this beaten down name.

XLE (SPDR Sector energy) Pin bar and bullish hammer on daily chart. Signal for move higher, will need commodities to move higher and give this some steam.

MRO (Marathon Oil) (Update 12/11/17 - weak candle, still long) Long signal, target to test $15.75-$16.00 level.


AMD  (Advanced Micro Devices) (Update 12/11/17 - very tight range here. techincals bearish, I personally like this price level for a swing should price continue to show support.) Last two trading sessions here are showing some weakness. Shorts are looking to remain in control here without some significant news.

SNAP (snapchat) (Update 12/11/17 - Two hours at $15.40 level and price never looked back, bulls in full control, next resistance and key level will be $17.00 level, as both 200dEMA and pivot resistance are nearly stacked in that level.) Bullish move continues here as discussed based on techincals. Still room to move higher here $15.40 will be battle ground for price action. Congratulations to all longs here. I am still bearish on snap in general, this is just a personal bias on the business. I will not pretend to understand what is "fair value" or price targets based on fundamentals.

Natural Gas (JAN 18 contract): (Update 12/11/17 - still long here, no reason to exit, price action a bit weak. still holding reasonable for now. Shortage of NG in China, lets see how big boys play this one tomorrow, will be key.) Following recent weakness, my interest in this commodity has grown. Massive volume during Thursdays session and a key price level held from July contract $2.75 area. Colder weather expectations had this trading positive friday. As of writing, futures price gap up and moving higher. Will look to hold for seasonal/weather rotation. I am long 3 futures contracts 2.775 well as long UGAZ in the robinhood challenge based on this theory. There is significant risk here as I am attempting to "catch the falling knife". Although using key price levels to do this, please note that a real bottom has not been put in here, we can still flush and retest lows. Should price action continue bullish I will keep a close eye on inventory report Thursday as a signal for longer term potential here.

Trend Watch

  • $IMGN (Update 12/11/17 - price moved to fast to enter or alert swing. will look for entry tomorrow at close price levels.)(update 12/10/17 most indicators here are bullish, RSI cross mid line, MACD strong, patterns confirming. Be on watch for swing alert on this name.)Looking to add above $6.00 for next leg.
  • QBAK 200dEMA on deck, price could be entering bearish levels after an extraordinary run.
  • $HMNY - Held 200dEMA, good sign for bulls. chart is choppy. techicnals are sloppy. Will watch for entry and volume.
  • $ONCS (Update 12/11/17 -  50dEMA showing support, bounce potential) continue to watch here. Technicals still cooling off. Watching to long above $1.53 being a key fib level.
  • JP - (Update 12/11/17 -  conflicting signals, daily potential for bounce, weekly showing room to move lower. Trend remains short for now, like this for re-run potential.) Has my attention, volume strong, no position, missed entry at $15 level. Not chasing.
  • VRX - (Update 12/11/17 - all levels overbought on this breakout, would like to buy above $18 level for buy and hold. to high to buy at these levels.) Beaten down biotech darling finally breaking long term resistance and closing above 50dEMA. Long term buy and hold (higher risk over all but could be a 3-5 year type play)

Robinhood Challenge: UGAZ 48 shares long. Account value $319 at time of writing.

 

Low float watchlist plays

  • LBIX : Stopped out as expected here. Price consolidating $1.50. This one is tight, it will break soon. The question is long or short. At this point its a coin toss. On watch for signal.
  • TNDM (update 12/11/17 Alerted swing here $2.40 entry, stop $2.18, 3k size, target $3.00) Will enter long tomorrow, defined risk. Long term swing. Set and forget. Risk here is $0.26 share+-
  • EKSO Bulls in control, $2.59 is fib 61.8% (this will be key battle ground for price action) watching for potential to add.
  • EGLT $1.00 level holding. bounce potential only.
  • SALT - some nice geometry showing potential to move into $8.50 level.

 

BITCOIN/CRYPTO

Major chop in price action on both bitcoin and the below names. Keep this on watch as bitcoin continues to grow strength. Now that futures are available to trade, expect some more momentum in all crypto plays until the bubble bursts or people just get bored because gains slow.

  • GROW: (on fire!)
  • TEUM:
  • SRAX: (continuation watch)
  • RIOT: (way to over extended for my liking, huge gap)
  • MARA: (great move, chance to retest $10 spot? not out of realm of possibility)
  • DPW: (keep on close watch tomorrow)
  • XNET: (best techincals out of the bunch for a move higher $16.15 breakout level)

Hot watch list 12/10/17 (updated on 12/11/17)

  • MRDN (curling, breakout level $1.20, volume alert)
  • CUR (Update 12/11/17 - DJOI, reversal potential) (still on watch for breakout day, major gap fill here.)
  • MARK (Update 12/11/17 - huge green day, divergence and macd cross, careful if this starts to breakdown, shorts will step in quickly)(continuation potential, Volume and major green day)
  • EBIO (penny, volume alert former runner, closer to closing above 20dEMA.)
  • MOSY (curl and volume alert, 200dEMA $1.68, could move fast)
  • CHFS (volume, reversal)
  • CANN (pink sheet, OTC, continued strength, on watch for continuation.)
  • EYES (short squeeze!)

 

Low Float/Small Cap momentum-

Crypto related plays are showing incredible gains and momentum with no end in sight... For me this means it is time to play it safe. I will limit size and duration of trades in most of these tickers. DPW was halted last week and opened significantly lower, fortunately price recovered but the end of this bitcoin euphoria plays can come quickly.

With that being said, there is a mountain of cash to be made if you are the risk tolerance for such plays. If you are looking to define risk Assume a worst case scenario of a T12 halt and a 50% position loss, while this scenario is unlikely it is always prudent to keep in mind.

Never give one trade the ability to make you rich or poor, the chances of either will have detrimental impacts on your future ability to trade consistently. Which is the real goal here, long term wealth and consistency.


Momentum disclaimer:
Use caution when trading these low float names, they can crash even faster then they rise. Lock profits and do not look back, never play the "what if" game on these names. You can be up or down several hundred or THOUSANDS of dollars in minutes and in the case of a T12 material halt, you could be in for massive pain or worse be trapped in a position for days or weeks until material evidence is sufficient to remove halt.
 

Closing Notes:

Cushion built for Monday, I will look to be aggressive for the next few days with size but reducing exposure by getting in and out of trades quickly. The low float market is giving us great opportunity to lock in gains. Just don't overstay your welcome.

Seasonal tail wind is in full effect in consumer sector. Expect two solid weeks of gains before (if at all) tax selling begins.

SAY IT AGAIN FOR THOSE IN THE BACK!!!!~~~Do your best to not get caught up in trying to "buy the best Christmas ever", I understand that is an off color comment but one of my worst months ever was a December about 6 years ago shortly after I became consistently profitable.  I gave back 6 months of progress swinging for the fence looking to have a warren buffet style holiday for my family.

Greed kills, SPECIFICALLY this time of the year. Dream big but execute in reality!

Good luck team, Remain humble and hungry!

Disclaimer: We are not responsible for losses for any reason. We are just an investing club here, seek financial advise from a professional before acting on any of this information. This information is strictly my opinion and what i am seeing in the market. The information above is not a trade recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a licensed broker, dealer or finical adviser. Trading comes with considerable risk and my not be for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Never trade with money you can not lose and paper trade to prove profitability before using real money.