Super Sunday

12/10/17

Overall Market-

Market with strength during Fridays session, driven by optimism over the U.S. economy's strong fundamentals following the better-than-expected November jobs report. Market sentiment also brightened after the Senate and House approved a two-week funding bill, averting a possible government shutdown.

Technical on SPY with some real strength, daily candle closing on a bull hammer. Price action should continue to move higher as no critical weekend news has been release as of time of writing.

E-mini futures are currently open and moving slightly higher. Bullish for this weeks price action based on market sentiment and recent data.

VIX (Volitility) Pushing into historical low range. Setting up for a strong bounce when market shows any weakness. These levels are too low to ignore. No position currently long or short.

NVDA Daily chart failing to break or even test critical moving averages to the upside. I am seeing this as a signal for continued weakness. On watch for a potential long if price action remains and holds $180 level.

FCX (Freeport) Bulls in control here, trade thesis working. I am not in this position and was stopped for breakeven. Great idea and technical, execution wrong for me. Hopefully someone has this for continued strength. Of note in his chart is the DOJI that formed in Fridays sessions. Sellers may jump in to test resolve of bulls tomorrow.

CHK  (Chesapeake) Bearish channel formed and showing to be true here. No position. Techincals showing potential to test $3.00 in coming weeks. Only caveat to that is Natural Gas, if bullish action on NG pushing price, there may be come sympathy in this beaten down name.

XLE (SPDR Sector energy) Pin bar and bullish hammer on daily chart. Signal for move higher, will need commodities to move higher and give this some steam.

MRO (Marathon Oil) Long signal, target to test $15.75-$16.00 level.


AMD  (Advanced Micro Devices) Last two trading sessions here are showing some weakness. Shorts are looking to remain in control here without some significant news.

SNAP (snapchat) Bullish move continues here as discussed based on techincals. Still room to move higher here $15.40 will be battle ground for price action. Congratulations to all longs here. I am still bearish on snap in general, this is just a personal bias on the business. I will not pretend to understand what is "fair value" or price targets based on fundamentals.

Natural Gas (JAN 18 contract): Following recent weakness, my interest in this commodity has grown. Massive volume during Thursdays session and a key price level held from July contract $2.75 area. Colder weather expectations had this trading positive friday. As of writing, futures price gap up and moving higher. Will look to hold for seasonal/weather rotation. I am long 3 futures contracts 2.775 well as long UGAZ in the robinhood challenge based on this theory. There is significant risk here as I am attempting to "catch the falling knife". Although using key price levels to do this, please note that a real bottom has not been put in here, we can still flush and retest lows. Should price action continue bullish I will keep a close eye on inventory report Thursday as a signal for longer term potential here.

Trend Watch

  • $IMGN (update 12/10/17 most indicators here are bullish, RSI cross mid line, MACD strong, patterns confirming. Be on watch for swing alert on this name.)Looking to add above $6.00 for next leg.
  • QBAK Bounced at long term trend line. Engulfing bull candle. with volume this one is will take off.
  • $HMNY - Held 200dEMA, good sign for bulls. chart is choppy. techicnals are sloppy. Will watch for entry and volume.
  • $ONCS continue to watch here. Technicals still cooling off. Watching to long above $1.53 being a key fib level.
  • JP - Has my attention, volume strong, no position, missed entry at $15 level. Not chasing.
  • VRX - Beaten down biotech darling finally breaking long term resistance and closing above 50dEMA. Long term buy and hold (higher risk over all but could be a 3-5 year type play)

Robinhood Challenge: UGAZ 48 shares long. Account value $319 at time of writing.

 

Low float watchlist plays

  • LBIX : Stopped out as expected here. Price consolidating $1.50. This one is tight, it will break soon. The question is long or short. At this point its a coin toss. On watch for signal.
  • TNDM Will enter long tomorrow, defined risk. Long term swing. Set and forget. Risk here is $0.26 share+-
  • EKSO Bulls in control, $2.59 is fib 61.8% (this will be key battle ground for price action) watching for potential to add.
  • EGLT $1.00 level holding. bounce potential only.

 

BITCOIN/CRYPTO

Major chop in price action on both bitcoin and the below names. Keep this on watch as bitcoin continues to grow strength.

  • GROW:
  • TEUM:
  • SRAX:
  • RIOT:
  • MARA:
  • DPW: (keep on close watch tomorrow)
  • XNET:

Hot watch list 12/10/17

  • MRDN (curling, breakout level $1.20, volume alert)
  • CUR (still on watch for breakout day, major gap fill here.)
  • MARK (continuation potential, Volume and major green day)
  • EBIO (penny, volume alert former runner, closer to closing above 20dEMA.)
  • MOSY (curl and volume alert, 200dEMA $1.68, could move fast)
  • CHFS (volume, reversal)
  • CANN (pink sheet, OTC, continued strength, on watch for continuation.)

 

Low Float/Small Cap momentum-

Expect some strong movers this week. Retail looking to push some gains as we close out the year. Given past moves in the above hotwatch list, any of those can and will move FAST.

Do not trade opening range breakouts on a Monday morning, that is rolling the dice for sure.  Use tomorrows session to dial in what sector the money is in.

Currently we have 4 areas showing some recent momentum, Bitcoin, Shippers, Chinese and therapeutic tickers.


Momentum disclaimer:
Use caution when trading these low float names, they can crash even faster then they rise. Lock profits and do not look back, never play the "what if" game on these names. You can be up or down several hundred or THOUSANDS of dollars in minutes and in the case of a T12 material halt, you could be in for massive pain or worse be trapped in a position for days or weeks until material evidence is sufficient to remove halt.
 

Closing Notes:

As is typical for all Mondays for me, I will first look to assess all swing positions. As far as day trading, smaller size and cushion building.

I am up an incredible amount in 2017 and have ZERO intention of ruining this year in the final weeks. Sure its possible to grab an additional 30k to 50k in the last weeks of the year, but in all honesty I would be perfectly happy taking $3,000 between now and the end of the year in exchange for limited losses.

Do your best to not get caught up in trying to "buy the best Christmas ever", I understand that is an off color comment but one of my worst months ever was a December about 6 years ago shortly after I became consistently profitable.  I gave back 6 months of progress swinging for the fence looking to have a warren buffet style holiday for my family.

Greed kills, SPECIFICALLY this time of the year. Dream big but execute in reality!

Good luck team, Remain humble and hungry!

Disclaimer: We are not responsible for losses for any reason. We are just an investing club here, seek financial advise from a professional before acting on any of this information. This information is strictly my opinion and what i am seeing in the market. The information above is not a trade recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a licensed broker, dealer or finical adviser. Trading comes with considerable risk and my not be for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Never trade with money you can not lose and paper trade to prove profitability before using real money.