Panic... and then buy!
Fear over baked in pricing on Tax Bill has been blamed for this mornings sell off. The market has not seen a -1% move in some time now. This morning was looking to be that day, until.. buyers stepped in again.
There is some truth in the thought that has been said since the election last November. The fact that reform to health care, tax bill & trade deals would be quick if Mr. Trump were to be elected president.
Since his election the market has taken off like a rocket on the back of these statements. The question is now becoming... What if these things do not come to pass? If the Tax Bill and associated windfall to corporate cash flow do not come, is a crash all but guaranteed?
I feel personally the market is well over extended and historically speaking is due for a large pull back perhaps even upwards on 15% but if all of these are "baked in" to the price, is there a chance we retrace 100% or more of the last 12 months progress in the SPY?
I would like to say no as we are in a genuinely strong market, or so it feels that way. Volume today was a telling sign that the market will prop up price until material evidence is shown to pull the breaks. I will remain long and continue with #BTFD mentality until proven otherwise.
I am most interested to see if we can remain above SPY 258. Any price between 255 and 258, for me are bullish price opportunity.
VIX (Volitility) VIX related products saw some very strong movement. These are the reasons i enjoy these plays for quick scalps. We are back at 10.50, will watch for a strong play if any negative or confirmed delay in the Tax Bill is released.
FCX (Freeport) I got my buy! Alerted a swing trade entry $14.60. Assuming price action was simply following the market, this is where my ideal entry is for a move higher. Stop here is $14.40 $0.20/share
CHK (Chesapeake) Still holding 1/2 position here. Will continue to hold. Nice price action here today.
XLE (SPDR Sector energy) update, still strong here. Like all energy plays right now.
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) Gap closed. looking to buy above $10.75 level. Would love to see price action stay above $11. That would provide a good base to move higher.
SNAP (snapchat) $12.24 support. I am short bias here. Looking to test all time low before moving higher.. if ever, this one is loosing all steam and market control. Instagram is killing snaps game. Just my personal opinion.
TOP watch for this week and tomorrow;
- $MRNS(Very good buying oppertunity today at $7.37 level. Wish she hadent spiked so much in the pre-market. Still a very strong play here from first mention on blog 2 weeks ago.)
- $NGL (update: bulls in fill control, 200d EMA $13.48, this should test that level.)
- $IMGN (Update: breakout potential here over $6.00, keep an eye.)
- $QBAK - (ugly daily candle, trend intact. keep watching)
- $HTGM (chart is a disaster. price all over the place. really hard to trade with conviction.)
- $MGTI (strong uptrend, 5 mins chart. Watching for breakout tomorrow. Strictly based on end of day price and volume.)
Low float tickers to watch
pay close attention to all squeeze candidates, we have seen several strong squeezes recently.
- $PYDS (Update: 2.50 support holding, still watching for set up.)
- $HMNY - daily chart with a small uptrend forming off LOD. watch close for bounce forming.)
- $IZEA (hammer, potential reversal. needs confirmation)
- $SKLN (Mid day news and spike, quickly selling off on low volume. earnings soon, watch)
- $MSDI (Update: full retrace, ouch. perfect example of why to never get greedy, take profit and move on when you can.)
- $INFI (Update: technicians were on point here, strong trend now forming on 15 min chart. volume at end of day was very strong. on watch for running candidate tomorrow. )
- $ONCS (Update: loved this set up, wish we had more volume end of day. will watch for continued consolidation.)
Hot watch 11/10/17 squeeze momentum watch
- RGSE (former runner, energy, solar play. earnings after hours, name is up)
- ANY (sexy daily chart, former spike, earnings after hours, name is up)
- INFI (as above)
- RTNB (continuation)
- DRYS (closed at $4.20 support, nice recovery)nfec
- NFEC (spike, needs volume)
- INPX (high risk penny play)
Low Float/Small Cap momentum-
Bulk Shippers had some moments today. Two Chinese moves.
Momentum is very concentrated. $CREG and $RTNB were the plays today for momo. Week 6 and still going strong. This is amazing and unprecedented. Keep making gains. Profits are here for the taking.
Use caution when trading these low float names, they can crash even faster then they rise. Lock profits and do not look back, never play the "what if" game on these names. You can be up or down several hundred or THOUSANDS of dollars in minutes and in the case of a T12 material halt, you could be in for massive pain or worse be trapped in a position for days or weeks until material evidence is sufficient to remove halt.
Watch the broad market close tomorrow, if you are a large cap or swing trader on names that can fluctuate with SPY. I will be watching for buying opportunity on some of my favorite swing plays.
If you are a momentum trader, keep doing what we are seeing. Find and follow the huge volume plays and go long at breakout levels.
5 minute setups are still working strong for me off pivot/support levels. I prefer defined risk trades where I can safely size up.
Try to not change up what is working. Its ok and expected to take losses just keep them manageable, lock um in and move on!
Good luck team, Remain humble and hungry!
Disclaimer: We are not responsible for losses for any reason. We are just an investing club here, seek financial advise from a professional before acting on any of this information. This information is strictly my opinion and what i am seeing in the market. The information above is not a trade recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a licensed broker, dealer or finical adviser. Trading comes with considerable risk and my not be for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Never trade with money you can not lose and paper trade to prove profitability before using real money.