Final Month of 2017!

11/30/17

 

Overall Market-

Record highs across the board on the back of Tax Reform progress.

Market sentiment brightened on optimism that the Senate could vote on the much-anticipated tax reform bill, after voting to open a formal debate on the proposed tax changes.

Upbeat economic news on the labor market and personal income and spending providing additional legs up. Earlier, initial jobless claims fell 2,000 for the week ended Nov. 25 to 238,000.

Personal income rose 0.4% in October with spending up 0.3%, versus 0.3% increases expected for both. The savings rate, meanwhile, grew to 3.2% from 3%.

I am most interested to see how the market plays above SPY level $266, this is the level of the upper channel based on the 3 year week chart. We could be on tap for a new level of expansion beyond our current range.

VIX (Volitility) Divergence in market price action and VIX futures is creating some great trading opportunity in all VIX related instruments. I have used TVIX and XIV to trade on days like this before I gained experience in futures, however I prefer to trade the Volatility future directly as it takes far less capital to capture moves in short time frames.

NVDA Looking for a buying opportunity here, I was hopeful for a larger sell off here providing a stronger technical bounce. At the moment I am interested in going long if this $200 price level consolidates nicely. Be mindful the 200dEMA is nearly 40 points away from current price.

FCX (Freeport) (no change) Still holding entry $13.84, this is $0.20 higher than my ideal entry. Only 1k size on this position. $14 spot tested today, chart still showing price targets between $15.25-$15.75, stop at break-even here. Nearly stopped out here twice, expecting to be stopped tomorrow.

CHK  (Chesapeake) Update: 11/30/17, swing alerted to subscribers 11/29/17, price level$3.94, we have traded off this level several times in the past. Sold 1/3 into this mornings spike. Final 2/3's break even.

XLE (SPDR Sector energy) OPEC!!!, sector on fire now. Market and OPEC news driving this sector.

MRO (Marathon Oil) Another favorite play back at channel trade levels here. Will be looking to enter for a swing, sector momentum and long term support here. Stop here will be $14.25 level.


AMD  (Advanced Micro Devices) Alerted here at $10.90 (11/15/17), stop $10.50, removed 1/3 position at 20dEMA $11.70. update 11/30/17 Trimmed a third here at break even, leaving final third on at $10.50 stop. breakout level rejected strongly. heavy profit taking and sector rotation is lending to a failed trade here.

SNAP (snapchat) (no change) Technicals here are showing move higher and potential breakout into gap zone. Any longs here have a strong position with defined risk. However,  I am far to bearish on this name to trade with a clear mind, I am sure I am would not be accurately perceiving market information on this and will avoid going long here. I will be looking to short at key fib levels.

TWTR (Twitter) Update: All out of this position 11/29/17. gave back a bit to much profit here for my liking.

Trend Watch

  • $IMGN breakout here finally after prolonged consolidation. profit zone $6.30 to $6.70.
  • QBAK buyer here at $6.50, may never get the chance but looking at long term support to buy.
  • $HMNY - In all honesty, panicked here and sold at $14.60. 11/29, I will look to rebuy this. I still believe in a long bullish action here.
  • $ONCS Strong spike and price action last two trading session. Hope someone took some profits here. Will continue to watch, price forming strong base above $2.00

Robinhood Challenge: Stopped on ADM small loss, opened long term swing on DFFN, this is higher risk but is a former runner, detected large block buying 11/29/17. Will see what happens on this play. Weekly cash injection completed yesterday. Account value currently $259.

 

  11/27/17 low float plays

  • MARK Update: forming a classing bullflag formation $8.00 support. No position
  • LBIX 3 red candles and a Doji here, I will enter tomorrow. I like this candle stick pattern. Provides a good defined risk. Stop $1.60.
  • TNDM  Update: Long signal here, be on watch for swing alert here. Ascending wedge. breaking 20dEMA with volume will be key for entry here.
  • EKSO update: failed trade here, breaking down quickly. near 200dEMA, MACD cross, $1.83 is last opportunity for a fib retrace play.
  • EGLT (no change) great price action here, looking for a long over $1.31 for a breakout here. update 11/27/17 price action holding well. high alert for breakout.
  • CLSN Looking for entry on this name. (correction 50dEMA!)200dEMA $2.65, will use this level for entry. now looking for entry
  • TEUM breakdown, pop and drops since Wednesday. momentum has lost steam. potential reversal area.

 

BITCOIN/CRYPTO

Some massive selling is causing loss of steam in this area for blockchain plays. This may have trapped some shorts in the following names. Will watch for a recovery in Bitcon to squeeze shorts stacked in names previsouly mentioned.  (if it ever comes, I do not trade or touch bitcoin, much safer ways for me to make money, I missed the boat for the last 10 years on it, I am not going to start chasing now.)

Hot Watchlist for 12/1/17

  • PRKR (former runner)
  • ROKA
  • OPTT (massive end of day volume and spike, be mindful of pop and drop potential here)
  • MARA (developing support, potential for quick trade scalp here)
  • AMBA (after hours earnings beat, potential for bounce

Hot watch list 11/29/17 (updates)

  • CAPR pop and drop victim
  • HTBX sell off
  • INPX pop and drop.

 

Low Float/Small Cap momentum-

Someone pulled the rug out of momentum this week, Gaps ups were selling off hard. Bounces at supports were flushing. We will need another day long grinder to get things going again. Fortunately tomorrow is the first of the month. I always look for these grind plays at the end of start of each month.

I have spoken before about momentum just turning off over night, It happens often and can go away for a while. Keep in mind that we had 8 solid weeks of irrational price movements, literal fortunes have been made in the last two months.


Momentum disclamer:
Use caution when trading these low float names, they can crash even faster then they rise. Lock profits and do not look back, never play the "what if" game on these names. You can be up or down several hundred or THOUSANDS of dollars in minutes and in the case of a T12 material halt, you could be in for massive pain or worse be trapped in a position for days or weeks until material evidence is sufficient to remove halt.
 

Closing Notes:

It is the start of the final month of trading for 2017. This year for me has been a dream, never has the market been easier to trade for such prolonged periods of time. I will NOT ruin this year in the final 4 weeks. Do not put pressure on yourself to hit a year goal. If you are behind on your trading, forcing trades will only do one thing. Put you further behind.

Momentum for me will be dead until proven alive. There will be plenty of opportunity to day trade and scalp again but right now is not the time. One of the hardest things to learn in trading is NOT trading. It is painful and boring. If you find yourself getting trigger happy. I have limited my trading in the past as a way to cope with that feeling. Start trading at 10am and quit by 11:30am. No more no less.

Close the year strong it starts today. Protect your trading account and be ready when opperuntiy strikes.

 

Good luck team, Remain humble and hungry!

Disclaimer: We are not responsible for losses for any reason. We are just an investing club here, seek financial advise from a professional before acting on any of this information. This information is strictly my opinion and what i am seeing in the market. The information above is not a trade recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a licensed broker, dealer or finical adviser. Trading comes with considerable risk and my not be for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Never trade with money you can not lose and paper trade to prove profitability before using real money.