What missile?!

11/29/17

Morning Addition for Wednesday 11/29/17

Overall Market-

News mid day yesterday of a North Korea missile launch was met with initial panic and selling in the market. However, Tax Bill reform propelling the market to new all time highs. 

I have intentionally waited until this morning to complete this blog to see how overnight markets would hold up. Sure enough futures are higher and for now things seem to remain on track for expansion in the market.

I remain bullish on this market as a whole until proven otherwise. All technical are pointing to continued moves higher. Charts are clean, no gaps or tails to speak of.


VIX (Volitility) A spike in the VIX yesterday as expected. There is some divergence in volatility and market pricing, this will typically make for some great trading opportunity. 

NVDA Update: Semiconductor names selling off as a whole yesterday. I will keep looking for an opportunity to add to my long term position here on a strong pullback where technical remain in place. I would like to be able to buy around the 50dEMA currently $198.71 Price target upgraded ($250) long term buying opportunity.

FCX (Freeport) (no change) Still holding entry $13.84, this is $0.20 higher than my ideal entry. Only 1k size on this position. $14 spot tested today, chart still showing price targets between $15.25-$15.75, stop at break-even here. Not willing to let this winner turn into a loser but I will take a scratch trade here if price dips further. This needs time to play out price action.

CHK  (Chesapeake) watching price levels $3.50, $3.60 & $3.80 for potential entrys for long. Pivot $3.50, key long term resistance in that area. Chop city here on this chart. Looking weak, which means I will be looking to buy on that weakness. Key level for me here is above $3.40, anything under and I can see this quickly moving under $3 spot.

XLE (SPDR Sector energy) Oil prices weighting down sector, Higher than average temps hurting Natural Gas and Heating oil inventories. I will continue to look for a long opportunity based on seasonal demand. Entry will be key in any play.


AMD  (Advanced Micro Devices) Alerted here at $10.90 (11/15/17), stop $10.50, removed 1/3 position at 20dEMA $11.70. Update: price action showing great strength today breaking $11.50 area before closing above critical half dollar level. Technical here are heating up, RSI midline play, MACD also confirming. 200dEMA 11.96, breakout level here will be above $12.00, looking to take profit in gap area $13.25. I will most likely be removing another third of this position on the break of $12.00 and 50dEMA($12.14), 2000 shares remain open here.

AMD update 11/29/17: Strong sell off with sector and additional bad news here. I remain long based on above details. Please note that if this position breaks under $11.00 there is a good chance for a quick flush down to $10.50. I bought this on a dip in robinhood challenge tight stop remains in place on that position. I believe in the strength of this space but as always stops are in place to control risk. 

SNAP (snapchat) (no change) Technicals here are showing move higher and potential breakout into gap zone. Any longs here have a strong position with defined risk. However,  I am far to bearish on this name to trade with a clear mind, I am sure I am would not be accurately perceiving market information on this and will avoid going long here. I will be looking to short at key fib levels.

TWTR (Twitter) Update: Still holding $500 shares here, price action is strong up almost 1.5 points since entry. Great breakout on daily. Update 11/27/17: Josh Brown mentioned this play on fast money CNBC, I absolutely HATE when these TV personalities bring attention and typically signals that for me the play is mostly over. I will most likely trim and trail here. (trim size and place a trailing stop) set and forget.

Trend Watch

  • $IMGN watching for breakout still, techincals are losing steam here, need volume.
  • QBAK buyer here at $6.50, may never get the chance but looking at long term support to buy.
  • $HMNY - Still own 500 shares at $13.40 here. Stop now at $11.00. Trend is strong, this may end up being a strong buy, time will tell. Price action remains very strong here. Bulls are grinding this one. Waiting for breakout. Update 11/27/17: Volume came in at key price level and breaking to new high since recent swing low. Play shaping up nicely here. Breakout level $15.50
    update 11/29/17 need price to close above $15.00 here, breakout potential as techincals are heating up. 
  • $ONCS update: $2 level holding better than I had anticipated, watching for consinued consolidation in this price range. May enter with small size for a swing trade. Stop would be just below $2.00. 

Robinhood Challenge: Sold UGAZ (too soon but locking profits and moving on, must compound here.) Bought AMD on dip yesterday, tight stop. Account balance at time of writing $248, currently up %148 on this challenge.

 

  11/27/17 low float plays

  • MARK Update: no fib retracement play here, bounce happened to quickly here, no trade for me
  • LBIX 200dEMA $1.61, keep close watch on price in these levels. Could be a good swing entry with a defined risk to the stacked moving averages on this chart. 
  • TNDM  Update: if $2.50 level breaksdown, I will most likely remove from list.
  • EKSO Price pulling back to fib level %61.8, like this as a pull back to enter for a new long stop is $2.45 for me at 50ema on the 4 hour chart. Update 11/27/17 alerted high risk buy $2.80 level. stop $2.42, long 1k size. price held fib level perfect for entry. price target $3.57 & $4.18
  • EGLT great price action here, looking for a long over $1.31 for a breakout here. update 11/27/17 price action holding well. high alert for breakout.
  • CLSN Looking for entry on this name. 200dEMA $2.65, will use this level for entry.
  • TEUM breakout play over $1.20, update 11/27/17 gap up this morning and great buying opportunity on pull back $1.10 level. up after hours massive. High alert tomorrow! Update 11/29/17 call here was nearly spot on, continue to watch as price action consolidates at this critical price level between $1.10 and $1.20

 

BITCOIN/CRYPTO

Some massive selling is causing loss of steam in this area for blockchain plays. This may have trapped some shorts in the following names. MARA, TEUM, RIOT, SRAX, DPW. GROW has my attention this morning so far. It is gapping up premarket, no real volume to speak of but has potential as a former runner. 

Hot watch list 11/29/17

  • CAPR (former runner, trend and momentum are long here) - Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) up 24% in pre-market trade after the company said Wednesday that the US Food and Drug Administration has approved its investigational new drug application to conduct a new clinical trial of CAP-1002, its lead investigational therapy, in boys and young men in advanced stages of Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
  • HTBX (high risk penny play) based strictly on price action and volume curling, looking for breakout, quick play, breakout/bailout.
  • INPX (high risk penny play) same criteria as HTBX above. watch for strong break of $0.50
  •  

 

Low Float/Small Cap momentum-

Keep an eye on the bitcoin blockchain space. There is so much news now in major media outlets and attention on anything related to this technology. In all honesty for me, I am skeptical of how any of these names truly benefit from blockchain, as such I will not invest in any of these names but they will continue to provide trading opportunity for day and swing trading. 


Momentum disclamer:
Use caution when trading these low float names, they can crash even faster then they rise. Lock profits and do not look back, never play the "what if" game on these names. You can be up or down several hundred or THOUSANDS of dollars in minutes and in the case of a T12 material halt, you could be in for massive pain or worse be trapped in a position for days or weeks until material evidence is sufficient to remove halt.
 

Closing Notes:

Keep an eye on the North Korea news today, UN sanctions are expected. Short of an actual declaration of war, I will be looking to buy any dips that come from this situation.

I will continue to look for end of year tail wind swing plays. This time of year is typically a great opportunity to buy and hold for a few weeks on trend. You wont get rich off one trade but you will make and compound gains which is what I am all about.

Good luck team, Remain humble and hungry!

Disclaimer: We are not responsible for losses for any reason. We are just an investing club here, seek financial advise from a professional before acting on any of this information. This information is strictly my opinion and what i am seeing in the market. The information above is not a trade recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a licensed broker, dealer or finical adviser. Trading comes with considerable risk and my not be for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Never trade with money you can not lose and paper trade to prove profitability before using real money.