New Highs

Monday 11/27/17

Another new all time high

Overall Market-

SPY new all time high, strength in price action today is incredibly strong. Technical level 260 now confirmed support. North Korea noise has all but disappeared on national news outlets. Focus now turns heavily to "government shutdown" budget concerns and Tax Bill reform. 

Prominent Wall Street bull Laszlo Birinyi on Monday again lifted his target for the S&P 500 after the benchmark hit his previous objective of 2,600 a month early. Laszlo sees S&P making a run for 2,700.

I personally agree with this sentiment. There is just too much money to be made right now for far to many to stop this market. In the beginning of this month I had referenced news events with potential to slow this rally, none have come to fruition or lingered long enough to impact pricing. December should remain similar in regard to trading.

New Fed Chaiman Kaplan, has some power to remove some of the momentum if interest rates will be raised in the "near future" as he has stated.

I remain bullish on this market as a whole until proven otherwise. All technical are pointing to continued moves higher. Charts are clean, no gaps or tails to speak of.


VIX (Volitility) Continued acceptable levels for trading here. Will watch to see 9.50 or possibly 9 tested in December should Tax Bill and budget details workout in favor of investors, historical lows should remain intact.

NVDA Price target upgraded ($250) long term buying opportunity. Running with market, I will likely not get my add here. Great grind on this name. Setting up for breakout here.

FCX (Freeport) (no change) Still holding entry $13.84, this is $0.20 higher than my ideal entry. Only 1k size on this position. $14 spot tested today, chart still showing price tragets between $15.25-$15.75, stop at breakeven here. Not willing to let this winner turn into a loser but I will take a scratch trade here if price dips further. This needs time to play out price action.

CHK  (Chesapeake) watching price levels $3.50, $3.60 & $3.80 for potential entrys for long. Pivot $3.50, key long term resistance in that area. Chop city here on this chart. Looking weak, which means I will be looking to buy on that weakness. Key level for me here is above $3.40, anything under and I can see this quickly moving under $3 spot.

XLE (SPDR Sector energy) Oil prices weighting down sector, Higher than average temps hurting Natural Gas and Heating oil inventories. I will continue to look for a long opportunity based on seasonal demand. Entry will be key in any play.


AMD  (Advanced Micro Devices) Alerted here at $10.90 (11/15/17), stop $10.50, removed 1/3 position at 20dEMA $11.70. Update: price action showing great strength today breaking $11.50 area before closing above critical half dollar level. Technical here are heating up, RSI midline play, MACD also confirming. 200dEMA 11.96, breakout level here will be above $12.00, looking to take profit in gap area $13.25. I will most likely be removing another third of this position on the break of $12.00 and 50dEMA($12.14), 2000 shares remain open here.

SNAP (snapchat) Technicals here are showing move higher and potential breakout into gap zone. Any longs here have a strong position with defined risk. However,  I am far to bearish on this name to trade with a clear mind, I am sure I am would not be accurately perceiving market information on this and will avoid going long here. I will be looking to short at key fib levels.

TWTR (Twitter) Update: Still holding $500 shares here, price action is strong up almost 1.5 points since entry. Great breakout on daily. Update 11/27/17: Josh Brown mentioned this play on fast money CNBC, I absolutely HATE when these TV personalities bring attention and typically signals that for me the play is mostly over. I will most likely trim and trail here. (trim size and place a trailing stop) set and forget.

Trend Watch

  • $IMGN watching for breakout still, techincals are losing steam here, need volume.
  • QBAK buyer here at $6.50, may never get the chance but looking at long term support to buy.
  • $HMNY - Still own 500 shares at $13.40 here. Stop now at $11.00. Trend is strong, this may end up being a strong buy, time will tell. Price action remains very strong here. Bulls are grinding this one. Waiting for breakout. Update 11/27/17: Volume came in at key price level and breaking to new high since recent swing low. Play shaping up nicely here. Breakout level $15.50
  • $ONCS Consolidation continues here. 20dEMA closing. Watching $1.83 for potential Fib entry. Consolidation here has been holding well.

Robinhood Challenge: Trimmed UGAZ position. Bought this to high to really profit from the gap that occurred. account up 138% at time of writing. I believe NG is ready for a seasonal rotation but there is to much Oil production for me. OPEC will give insight for me as to how to position In natural gas for the winter season.

Personal note here, I have a long term love affair with Natural Gas, both the futures market and leveraged ETN's are were I made most of my money when I first became profitable. It is something I feel comfortable with but rarely post on the blog or social media. Any leveraged instrument or future contract has more risk than I am comfortable giving alerts on. These can and have moved %25 on me in the past for both gains and losses. Use caution trading any leveraged positions.

 

  11/27/17 low float plays

  • MARK Update: will be watching this play for a fib retracement entry. May take several days.
  • LBIX High alert here, Missed my entry I was targeting below $1.80 level. Keep on watch for breakout based on price action here. Bullish move today, Indicators showing squeeze play potential.
  • TNDM  Update: continued consolidation, needs volume for breakout above $3 spot.
  • EKSO Price pulling back to fib level %61.8, like this as a pull back to enter for a new long stop is $2.45 for me at 50ema on the 4 hour chart. Update 11/27/17 alerted high risk buy $2.80 level. stop $2.42, long 1k size. price held fib level perfect for entry. price target $3.57 & $4.18
  • EGLT great price action here, looking for a long over $1.31 for a breakout here. update 11/27/17 price action holding well. high alert for breakout.
  • CLSN Price held $3.00 level today, will look for potential long is price holds above $2.81.
  • TEUM breakout play over $1.20, update 11/27/17 gap up this morning and great buying opportunity on pull back $1.10 level. up after hours massive. High alert tomorrow!

 

BITCOIN/CRYPTO

Some strong trading opportunity in early trading but overall selloff in all crypto names. I feel this is due to the huge gaps formed in price action. Premarket moves will often kill the potential for huge moves. I personally traded GROW, traded this previously in the robinhood challenge. Study the names mentioned yesterday in the blog for some strong structure trading opportunity.

I will not be looking to force plays in this sector. Just keep the names mentioned yesterday on watch for heavy volume and scalp opportunity.

 

Low Float/Small Cap momentum-

SHIPPERS!!! back in the spotlight. GLBS, DRYS, TOPS, SINO, ESEA,

DCIX volume and squeeze late day move, price holding well after hours. Keep shippers on watch. Momentum is still very strong and is showing no signs of slowing down. 8 weeks of strong trading in the low float arena. As is typical here, do not chase, you will get destroyed. It is ok to miss a play. I miss them all the time. Chasing and buying to high is a sure fire way to lose money most times. 


Momentum disclamer:
Use caution when trading these low float names, they can crash even faster then they rise. Lock profits and do not look back, never play the "what if" game on these names. You can be up or down several hundred or THOUSANDS of dollars in minutes and in the case of a T12 material halt, you could be in for massive pain or worse be trapped in a position for days or weeks until material evidence is sufficient to remove halt.
 

Closing Notes:

Only one day trade for me today, that was my plan and I stuck to it with small size. First day back in front of the trade station in nearly a week. Will continue to build momentum and finish the month strong.

Do your best to fight the greed we are seeing in the market. Periods of incredible growth are often followed by periods of great loss, you must do your best to avoid giving back any hard earned profits.

Taking profits off the table is hard to do in this environment, the fear that price can and will move higher is very real for all traders. I will do what has made me profitable and continues to this day. LOCK profits, any gain over 10% is huge, keep that in mind. Compounding is the game we are playing here, no one can or should expect to get rich on one trade.

In the words of J.P. Morgan... " I am rich because I always sold too soon".

Good luck team, Remain humble and hungry!

Disclaimer: We are not responsible for losses for any reason. We are just an investing club here, seek financial advise from a professional before acting on any of this information. This information is strictly my opinion and what i am seeing in the market. The information above is not a trade recommendation to buy or sell. I am not a licensed broker, dealer or finical adviser. Trading comes with considerable risk and my not be for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Never trade with money you can not lose and paper trade to prove profitability before using real money.